China's Answer to Starlink (Nov 2023 Update)
Plus, Landspace in Huzhou, the China Hi-Tech Fair, Huawei's LEO broadband test, and more
Dear Readers,
As we move towards the end of the year, a few short updates before diving into the newsletter.
The newsletter recently hit 1,000 subscribers, thank you to everyone who has signed up thus far!
We recently created a paid subscription option, while also paywalling any content that is >6 months old. If the newsletter brings value or enjoyment, or if you otherwise like what we do, feel free to support with a subscription.
Our extensive catalog of research and consulting offerings are now online at Orbital Gateway Consulting’s new revamped website. If you’re a space agency, company, or other entity interested in databases, research reports, and other intelligence on the Chinese space sector, check it out, or otherwise get in touch at info@orbitalgatewayconsulting.com
And without further ado, on to the newsletter.
China’s Answer to Starlink (Nov 2023 Update)
With Starlink being used as strategic infrastructure in increasingly high-stakes situations such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, and with China striving to be a comprehensive space power, the question of whether China launches its own low-earth orbit broadband constellation (LEO constellation) is one of when and how, rather than if. We outlined the story as it was in our February 2023 newsletter, but as is the case with all things in the Chinese space sector, things have evolved quickly, and 10 months later, we are long overdue for a refresh.
As of the beginning of 2023, China Satellite Networks Limited (China SatNet) was the obvious candidate for “company most likely to launch China’s large NGSO broadband constellation”. Founded in April 2021 as a centrally-owned SOE, SatNet was immediately the frontrunner for China’s LEO broadband constellation ambitions, with official documents noting, for example, the merger of Hongyan and Hongyun (smaller LEO broadband constellations planned by CASC and CASIC, respectively), into the SatNet project. And for two and a half years we’ve waited, with relatively few concrete updates from SatNet, at least on the space segment side of things, with 5 “LEO communications test satellites” launched in 2023 on two rockets. Early 2023 saw a leadership shakeup and vague investigation by the 14th Central Inspection Team, which while not crippling for the company, was probably not great for morale either.
Over the course of 2023, we’ve seen several important updates that have, among other things, broadened out the field of Chinese LEO broadband suitors. Chief among them has been the increasingly vocal support of the Shanghai Government in developing its own satellite internet industry. A quick aside: in industries like telecoms, power in China is still very centralized, with the big 3 state-owned telcos (China Mobile, Telecom, and Unicom), sitting in their mammoth HQs occupying entire city blocks in Beijing. It is unthinkable that the Shanghai Government would lend its support to a 4th telco to enter the market, with its HQ in Shanghai centered around developing Shanghai’s telecoms industry. And until recently, so it was, with the Shanghai Government offering support for the space industry, but limited tangible support for a municipal LEO broadband constellation, as it were. This is changing fast.
Shanghai as a Hive of Activity
First, on July 21, an article published in Chinese media highlighted the industrial development taking place in the Songjiang New Town of Shanghai. According to the article, the industrial park includes a factory with a total investment of ¥670 million, which will be completed in 2023 and have an annual manufacturing capacity of 300 satellites, while bringing down the cost of satellites by 35%. At the same time, the Party Secretary of Songjiang, Cheng Xiangmin, noted that the district “would build a satellite Internet industry cluster represented by the "G60 Starlink"“ (constellation). All this is to say, Shanghai has been getting vocal in its support for developing its own LEO constellation earlier this year, seemingly in addition to Guowang being developed by the centrally-controlled SOE in (near) Beijing.
In October, the Shanghai City Government (significantly more powerful than Songjiang District) published its 2023-2026 New Infrastructures Development Plan, which included broad-based support for satellite internet, as well as more specific notes about satellite constellations, the Smart SkyNet constellation (MEO broadband constellation similar to O3b first-generation) and “commercial constellation networks”. This follows the national-level NDRC decision to add Satellite Internet to its list of New Infrastructures all the way back in 2020, and represents a certain lag effect between such an announcement, and a city government throwing its weight behind a commercial venture in that sector.
And most recently, earlier this month, the Shanghai Municipal Government announced a 2023-2025 “Shanghai Action Plan to Create a Space Information Industry”, which specifically noted the G60 and Smart SkyNet constellations as key projects, while also highlighting ambitions to develop rocket and ground station industries in the city. G60 is a LEO broadband constellation to be operated by Yuanxin Satellite, aka SSST (垣信卫星), and while smaller in scale than Starlink, could be thought of as a Chinese version of OneWeb or the Rivada constellation concept (incidentally there are several links between G60 and Rivada, for a dive down the rabbit whole check out here).
Shanghai has a significant state-owned space sector including two of China’s leading satellite manufacturers (SAST and CAS SECM), and a vibrant commercial space ecosystem. The rush of government support is likely a big enough catalyst to get projects like G60 off the ground, at least for the next few years.
Activity Outside of Shanghai and Beijing
Shanghai is far from the only place where we’ve seen a broadening out in the race to field “China’s answer to Starlink”, even if it is the place where government officials have been most explicit and vocal in their support. Among others, Galaxy Space has seemingly gotten their own constellation project back on track after several years of focusing on satellite manufacturing. The company filed for a 1,804-satellite “Black Spider Web” constellation with support from Chinese regulators in August 2023, and while talk is cheap, the company has been seen at conferences this year touting its constellation plans, while launching prototype stackable satellites that would be perfect for, you guessed it, LEO broadband constellations. In November 2023, the company also revealed that it was working on a new series of satellites using two dimensional solar array technology for direct satellite-to-mobile applications.
Beyond Galaxy Space, commercial companies including MinoSpace, Jingji Communications, Troy Communications, and HiStarlink (yep…), have developed to serve various parts of this opened up satellite internet/LEO constellation value chain, including satellite manufacturing, communications payloads, flat panel and phased-array antennas, laser communications, etc.
Other recent government announcements seem to have indicated greater general openness in the telecoms sector, primarily in the name of faster innovation. In early October, the MIIT published a draft for comments of “Opinions on Innovating the Management of the Information and Communications Industry to Optimize the Business Environment”, which included plans to “promote the reform of the satellite internet business in steps….and expand the scope for private enterprises to participate in telecommunications business”.
What does all this mean?
One could reasonably ask why the LEO broadband constellation game in China has broadened out over the course of 2023. After all, telecoms remains sensitive and state-owned in China, why should satellite telecom be any different? I speculate, but there are probably a few parts to the answer:
The Chinese government wants to catch up with Starlink badly, and one way to do that is to allow more competition. This means that we should expect to see a greater degree of commercialization/marketization, with particular focus on companies making tangible strides in strategic technologies.
This was always part of the plan. China SatNet, the operator of Guowang, was never likely to manufacture its own satellites, rather they would buy from others. By opening up the industry to more competition on the satellite operator side (more LEO broadband constellations), it develops a more robust industrial base for SatNet to choose from when deploying Guowang.
The industry still isn’t that open. The G60 constellation is reliant on the Shanghai government as a patron (giving the state some control), and is still beholden to the state for regulatory, and in some instances commercial support.
In any case, the takeaway is that today in China, there is more than one commercial player developing LEO broadband constellations of different scales, and these players are a lot more credible than they were 6-12 months ago. The leader in the race to launch “China’s version of Starlink” clearly remains China SatNet, but commercial players such as Galaxy Space, SSST, and others are getting more explicit support from more high-powered friends in their missions to launch their own constellations.
It’s still too early to say who’s going to launch the “Chinese version of Starlink”, but compared to a year ago, the picture is a lot more complex, and the field is a lot more open. Whereas 12 months ago, most satcom communication activity was focused on SatNet, today we have a number of players that have received the regulatory green light. If all development plans and aspirations are met, in 5 years we might not just have a Chinese version of Starlink, but an O3b and OneWeb too.
Updates from the Rest of the Month
Belarus and Pakistan 🇧🇾🇵🇰 became the 6th and 7th countries to sign onto the Sino-Russian International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project, following China, Russia, Venezuela, South Africa, and Azerbaijan. The two countries joined via cooperation agreements signed between their respective space agencies and the CNSA. For what it’s worth, my bet for the next country to sign on would be Egypt 🇪🇬 or Brazil 🇧🇷, though the latter would be an interesting turn given Brazil having already signed the Artemis Accords.
Huawei announced that they had conducted tests using Galaxy Space LEO broadband satellites, achieving 660 Mbps peak download speed to a standard Ka-band VSAT. Galaxy Space has been using its satellites for application testing with an impressive array of partners. In addition to Huawei, the company has deep ties with China Unicom, and has developed a variety of satcom applications with them.
The Shanghai Government announced supportive measures for satellite internet among other things 🛰️, with this being the second such announcement in as many months, following Shanghai’s New Infrastructures Development Plan (2023-2026) published in October. Of particular note is the support for the “Smart SkyNet” MEO communications constellation, and for an unnamed, but likely to be G60 LEO broadband constellation.
Laser Link raised nearly ¥100M in a Series A funding round, with this the latest example of support for laser communications in the Chinese space sector. The company expects to have 8 laser terminals being tested on satellites in-orbit by the end of 2023, and claims to be some 2-3 years ahead of domestic competition, which today represents ~8-10 research institutes, companies, and entities in-between.
The China Hi-Tech Fair took place in Shenzhen, and as has been the case in recent years, quite a few space companies came out in force. Most prominent were local stalwart and CAST subsidiary Shenzhen Aerospace Dongfanghong, and more recent local juggernaut APT Mobile Satcom (Shenzhen). Other companies making an appearance include next-generation thruster manufacturer EDrive Space, SatPro, and Ellipspace. The big news of the day was the grand opening of APT Mobile Satcom’s new office tower in Shenzhen’s Bao’an District, with the company inking agreements with Nanjing Cowave, SpeedChina, and NTF Satellite Technology for leasing of office space in APT’s tower. While still clearly early stage, it could be a space industry cluster developing over in the mangroves of Bao’an.
The 2nd phase of Landspace’s Huzhou industrial base was completed, bringing their production capabilities up to 30 rockets and 300 engines per year. 🚀 The news may be a vote of confidence in Landspace’s presence in Huzhou, which I had started to question as they announced industrial bases in Jiaxing and Wuxi over the past couple of years. The completion at Huzhou still begs the question of why the company is developing three different industrial bases within ~100 miles (~160km) of one another.
And finally, more rideshare missions planned by China, as CALT commercial subsidiary China Rocket announces at least 3 rideshare missions for 2024, planned for February, May, and November. For those in the market for launch capacity, the three launches have 200kg, 300kg, and 300kg of capacity to 500km SSO in the 3 months, respectively. China Rocket also announced an unnamed larger, more capable medium-lift launch vehicle to debut in 2024, almost certainly the Jielong-4, a 3.5m solid-fuel engine. For more info on China Rocket, check out OGC’s China Launch Industry Benchmark, coming in January 2024.
That’s all folks. Thanks again to all subs for having contributed to reaching the milestone of 1,000!
Blaine